Plant adaptation to climate change can be modeled. I analyzed a Centre National Research Scientific (CNRS) developed model, Phenotype, for plant adaptation to climate change.  Which I converted by importing old models and data into an Excel application. This expanded capabilities and flexibility making it easier to comprehend and adapt by users. (Montpellier, France)

CNRS 

The goal is to compute and compare several species all competing against each other for water, sunlight and root and canopy space over the long term (100+ year period) using input from people all around the world..

We will create an on-line Open Source / Open Communities Internet Platform (ie. Github, Social Network Manager etc.) and develop the tools and social network which impact decision making.

Difficult to understand, enhance and adapt

Impossible to Democratize and evolve.

The Daily Weather data requires re-structuring

Lacks technical documentation, user support and project development potential

The Solution

A 3 step plan : 1)  Create a simulation of Phenofit’s models and calculations in Excel and use it as a working tool. 2) Transport Phenofit Excel  to web technologies (RISK,  GUI, Widgets, etc.) 3 Create an open / on-line community project.

Discussion

There are several reasons for decomposing Phenofit and scaling it down to an Excel version.

It’s easier to understand thus we can evolve, enhance and adapt it It easier to structure Phenofit for user control and data manipulation The outputs are already in Excel and graphics and documentation

Greater potential as it opens Phenofit’s data and calculations to more people.

The objective is to create a simulation with models and calculations in Excel.

There are several reasons for decomposing Phenological fitness and scaling it down to an Excel version.
It’s easier to understand thus it can evolve, enhanced and adapted
Its easier to re- structure for user control and data manipulation
The outputs are already in Excel and graphics and documentation
Greater potential as it opens Phenological fitness data and calculation to more people
Greater calculation potential.
Cool Excel techniques are :
1 “black-box” or “function” approach –combining “Calculating building blocks”
2. Each sheet (black-box) has input, outputs, local control and a buffer zone.
3 “redirect” technique. Dynamically create pointers to different  data sets (ie. years 1, 2, 3. etc.)
4 “table lookup indexes” An index obtained from counters or column variable
5 “retain-if” saves data only when conditions are met
6 “macro” used to increment a counter, in our case the year and species index
7 “color & comments” – ease of use and in-line documentation

• Relative humidity at 2 m  (Humidité relative à 2 m) [RH, %]
• Medium surface pressure (Pression moyenne au surface) [Press kPa]
• Daily precipitation (snow and rain) (Précipitation quotidienne (neige et pluie)) [P, mm]
• Daily sum of visible radiation (Somme quotidienne de rayonnement visible) [GLO, MJ/m²]
• Daily amount of infrared radiation (Somme quotidienne de rayonnement infra rouge [RAT, MJ/ m²]
•  Average specific humidity (Humidité spécifique moyenne) [Q, kg/kg]
• Daily minimum temperature at 2 m (Température minimalle quotidienne à 2 m) [TI, ° C]
• Average daily temperature at 2 m (Température moyenne quotidienne à 2 m) [T_a, °C]
• Daily maximum temperature at 2 m (Température maximalle quotidienne à 2 m) [T_i, °C]
• Average wind speed at 10m hight (Vitesse moyenne de vent à 10 m) [Vu, m/s]

Adapt a Plant Daily Weather

Lists the details data elements  which describe a plant to the models.

Species data concerns reaction to Frost, Drought, given the Species’ Provenanc.  Vaviables and calculationss  like :
Dl leafing date (Leaf Unfolding Date) ;
Df flowering date;
Dr ripening date;
Dc leaf colouring date.
dormancy entrance (of the buds)
hydric stress on fruit ripening
Il: leaves surviving frost
photosynthetic index depending on temperature.
Calculations
Il frost injury of leaves index;
Er thermal energy available since flowering ;
If frost injury of flowers index;
Ir fruit ripening index;
Sf probability of frost survival;
St probability of drought survival.
probability fruits reach full ripening (cumulated probability of the Gaussian distribution (Ec, sm)),
Ec: fitted parameter of the ripening date model

Sierra
Sierra procedure basically calculates the WATER/CARBON cycle in the roots and leaves of the plant This entails : INFILTRATION, EVAPORATION; LEAF_GROWTH ROOT_GROWTH FPC MATURITY

You can down load some working documents.

senescence_1

fruit_maturation_1

frost_leaf_1