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Environmental Numbers & Relations | Michael Spratt

Environmental Numbers & Relations

Environmental Numbers & Relations

Environmental Numbers & Relations

I work with data relations and calculations in environmental, ethology,  business and social applications. I use databases, statistics, models and simulations for fact based,  quantitative insight, in order to  provide objective advice on technologies and associated dynamics.

Today we use VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) analysis which are based upon power law distribution, instead of the normal distribution.

In  complex (environmental) systems,  events are interdependent, variances rarely follow a normal distribution and can’t be accurately controlled.  Controlling and/or eliminating variance assumes that variances follow a normal, random distribution which is not the case in a complex world because variances are interdependent.

A statistical analysis method called ANOVA (analysis of variance) uses small samples to predict how phenomena behave in the real world.  While management tools also attempt to decrease variances using this statistical analysis.  This approach assumes that events are randomly distributed, independent of each other, and that variances are homogeneous while the probability distribution fits a normal, Gaussian bell curve.

Autonomous agents mimic natural complex systems which influence and are influenced by the environment and each other. The virtual animals use very simple code which produce very complex and evolutive behavior and emergent functions.  The results from interactions of interdependent agents demonstrate complex adaptive systems.

  Environmental Models  –    Environmental Modelling and Software

 

My Efforts

Number and relations are abundant in challenging business, environmental, ecology, and social based information systems, for example :     1) Aqueducts and rain fall,     2) Plant adaptation to climate change,     3) aquaculture simulations and economics,    4) fishiers accounting and management, 5) product management, 6) marketing 7)business development strategies.

 

–  Simulation of Plant Adaptation to Climate Change  –

 

Simulation of Aquaculture Production (SAP)

 

California Aqueduct Resource Accounting CARA

 

Nutrition and Operational Research